1. Australia’s one thousand or more extreme bushfire ‘risk estimates’ (the worst case scenario death toll estimate), began in 1990, with a credible and appropriately presented scientific paper, that we believe was officially covered-up until 2025; for 35 years:
“…nationally prominent bushfire expert David Packham, formally delivered an extreme bushfire ‘risk estimate’ to the Federal government: ‘… the loss of 1000 lives and 15,000 homes’…alarm bells in the Prime Minister’s Office would undoubtedly have been quickly triggered…it was covered up” (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 4, page 42, Mr Packham’s 1990 extreme bushfire ‘risk estimate’).
2. In February 2009 – 19 years later – the next mention of an extreme bushfire ‘risk estimate’ with one thousand or more deaths in it, was on national television. The interview was broadcast three days after the Black Saturday Fires, when we believe the government’s coverup, combined with neglect about ignitions and fuel, killed 173 people:
‘…shortly after the Black Saturday Fires, Mr Packham’s…revised ‘risk estimate’ was “thousands”, a minimum of 2 times higher than his 1990 ‘risk estimate’ “… the death toll will … be measured in the thousands”…For the second time, Mr Packham’s ‘alarm bell’ was not actioned, refuted or challenged in any way. Once again it was covered up by the perpetrators of “mass murder” by preventable extreme bushfires, this time more overtly and shamelessly involving a larger number of enablers’ (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 4, page 42 & 43, Mr Packham’s 2009 extreme bushfire ‘risk estimate’.
3. In August 2009 – six months later – we believe the Premier of Victoria made a valid extreme bushfire ‘risk estimate’, when he said ‘thousands of lives’. Once again it was subsequently covered-up by Australia’s governments and propaganda media. The Premier stated on television, that a fire on Black Saturday:
“…could have destroyed thousands of houses and taken hundreds, if not thousands of lives” (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 4, page 40, The Premier of Victoria).
4. In August 2010 – one year later – the $100 million 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission’s recommendations were mandated by parliament. Recommendation No.59 stated:
“Include an explicit risk-analysis model for more objective and transparent resolution of competing objectives, where human life is the highest priority”. (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 4, page 44, Herding people to a massed death).
5. On 6 January 2012 – the crucial Royal Commission recommendation No.59 was fulfilled – a government video called Don’t Wait and See, was released. The video contained a preamble that revealed a death trap of ‘explosive’ eucalyptus tree shrouded houses and roads: “…the country road network of some 60 years ago…will become clogged with vehicles…”. We believe the words accompanying the video’s ‘risk estimate’ – by failing to say deaths – were primarily designed to protect the government’s systemic coverups, ignitions and landscape level fuel load negligence:
“…those 8000 people or so, trying to flee, are going to find it extremely hard…” (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 6, page 53, Government aware of impending disaster).
6. A month later, on 13 February 2012, Councillor Belinda Clarkson (and later, Firestick Estate Inc. secretary) wrote to the law firm, processing the biggest class action in Australia’s legal history, providing evidence and requesting the government’s bad behaviour be included in the damages:
‘…“exemplary damages’ in this trial, might be seen in retrospect as a proper use of the Courts authority, to help prevent a subsequent Extreme Bushfire Disaster many times larger than Black Saturday”…The Law firm responded by email, two days later on 15 February 2012: “We acknowledge receipt of your correspondence of 13 February and the attached CD. Our office will give careful consideration to the matters you raise. We thank you for your interest in this proceeding”’ (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 12, pages 85 & 86, Letter to Law Firm & Bibliography, page 229, Letter 198 Attac. 3 & 4).
7. A year later, on 13 March 2013, Professor Neville R Norman, PhD (Cambridge), stated the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission’s:
“…death value is about $3 million per person – suspiciously low…the RCs estimates are miles too low” (Bushfire Death Trap – The Eltham Gateway, Malseed&Packham, 2013, page 16, see “Difficult Valuations“).
With that credible opinion published, widely distributed and unchallenged, we believe Professor Norman established the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was not honest, effectively endorsing Australia’s leading journalist:
“The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission’s final report last weekend is the whitewash nobody even noticed. For a whitewash, that’s as good as you can get”. The Macquarie dictionary definition of ‘whitewash’ includes: “a dishonest official investigation into malpractice” Why were the Black Saturday guilty not named? Andrew Bolt Herald Sun 6 August 2010” (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 3, page 32, Others agree).
8. On 23 December 2014, the class action concluded. Firestick Estate Inc. believes, that had Don’t Wait and See’s ‘risk estimate’ properly mentioned deaths, the class action settlement would have included exemplary damages and been closer to our estimate of the losses, at $1.5 Billion: “…the biggest class action in Australia’s legal history…(concluded)…five years of hearings and meetings” (Black Saturday class action: Judge approves $494m Kilmore East bushfire settlement, ABC News, Tuesday 23 December 2014).
9. In December 2015, the Australian Government Attorney-General’s Department, wrote to us, denying their role in the 2012 extreme bushfire risk warning video, despite them being the most senior party displayed in the ‘credits’:
“…’Don’t Wait and See,’ was a local government initiative…I suggest you ‘credit’ this to the appropriate source on your website” (Australian Government Attorney-General’s Department, MC15-008372, response to Ms Clarkson, 13 December 2015, firestickestate.com Letters No.105).
10. Between 2012 and 2021, Firestick Estate Inc. properly raised Australia’s new paradigm extreme bushfire ‘risk estimate’, in letters to the Prime Ministers et-al. The many government responses we received, both avoided the issue and never challenged it:
“With the Victorian Government’s extreme bushfire warnings partly based on 9km/h instead of 24km/h, thousands of lives are at risk” (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 4, page 38, The scale of the problem).
11. In June 2024, 113 Advanced Reader Copies of “mass murder” and the coverups were both posted and emailed to Australian Government Ministers, Shadow Ministers, State Premiers, Opposition Leaders, National, State and Judicial Libraries and others. The book’s following statement remains unchallenged:
“It was inconceivable that the government had failed to look at this issue. Indeed, in that context, the government’s seemingly fearful silence suggested to us, they believe the ‘risk estimate’ was considerably higher” (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 9, page 67, Fuel causing ten thousand lives lost).
12. In July 2024, the Australian government Shadow Minister for Science, and Manager of Opposition Business in the House, unconditionally endorsed “mass murder” and the coverups, with the words, “These are very serious public safety issues and your informed and science-based advocacy is a valuable contribution”. With that response, we believe the senior Shadow Minister, the Leader of the Opposition and many others, had read the book and failed to challenge anything, specifically the minimum 10,500 deaths, unofficial ‘risk estimate’ therein:
“Combining our estimate of people directly impacted by flame, which is 30,000, the pattern of the fire and the government’s own assessment of fire intensities on the day, we believe…half of the estimated 30,000 people would have died…” (“mass murder” and the coverups, 2025, Chapter 4, page 44, 15,000 dead plus or minus 30%.)
13. In October 2024, considering the above, we reviewed the official 2012 Don’t Wait and See video. Firestick Estate Inc. concluded the video was the government’s ‘explicit risk-analysis model’, with the accompanying wording primarily designed to avoid self incrimination for the Black Saturday Fire’s deaths, three years earlier. We believe the Australian government’s secret ‘risk estimate’ for extreme bushfires has been 8000 deaths, since 2012.
14. On 19 February 2025, we emailed our Australian government contact, the former Shadow Minister for Science and Opposition Business in the House, stating: “…we have bought our website up to date with new menu items titled Don’t Wait and See, Risk 8000 deaths, President Trump…”. On 18 March 2025 – four weeks later – he replied: “Thanks for updating me – I will forward this to Senator Perin Davey, Shadow Minister for Emergency Management” (click here for entire email stream)